Archive for category Portfolio

20140621 $OXY weekly wrap

Name: Occidental Petroleum Corp
Sector/Industry: Energy/Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Thesis: $OXY beat last earnings estimates by $0.05 on May 5, 2014.  Spinning off California assets into independent E&P seen favorable by the market sheading focus on parent company global backlog, increasing earnings growth and steadily growing dividend.
Next earning date: 7/30/14 *Est.
Risk: Low with P/E 1/2 of sector peers.
Portfolio status: Bedrock/Anchor. Level of investment is full. Buying strategically only on dips more than 5% below most recent 52 week high.
Last trades: On 20140617 buy @ 102.35, on 20140613 buy @ 101.93.
All time high/52 week high: $117.89 May of 2011 /$104.14 on June 21, 2014
Price target: $115
Technical trading tier: Lowest

Chart Analysis: Weekly chart below shows $OXY is just about reached a level of resistance drawn at 104.36. Levels are based on prices going back a ways based on much different boundary conditions on the economy. Levels should be taken with a grain of salt. So this is trading approach I’m implementing. Watch the hourly charts and in particular when MACD Xup it’s signal. If stochastics Xup 80, consider that a signal to buy if stochastics Xdown 80 for a short period time and Xup 80 very soon after. Look for daily MACD Xup, daily stochastic Xup for confirmation.

oxy-weekly-20140620-eod

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stubby’s holdings review $AE $CBOE $CELG $CME $FNGN $GMCR $HBI $LNKD $MDSO $MGA $MMLP $NKE $OCN $RKT $ROST $TRIP $VXX

commentary:

  • during yesterday’s (20130612) rout, i unloaded $COO $CBRL $IEP $V.
  • today i picked up some stocks that were on my radar this week and last week such as $HBI $OCN $RKT.
  • these that i picked up today $GMCR $LNKD $MDSO $ROST $TRIP were based on improving technical indicators.
  • stocks that popped up on my radar today that i don’t hold but find interesting are $CYH $LL $PRAA $RH.
  • i also like the following that were on my watch list for this passed monday $AMG $VRX $CAM $WDR $UHS $BEAV $COG $GILD $DNKN $BIIB $HEI $ASPS $WDC $TYL $LIFE $FLT $CSGP $BBSI.
  • i also trimmed back my $VXX position but still hold some.
  • top performers i help prior to today $AE +7.8%, $CME +2.57%, $MGA 2.15%, $CBOE +1.88%, $FNGN +1.83%, $CELG 1.82%, $NKE +0.57%, $MMLP +0.07%
  • newly added holdings finished $MDSO +3.8%, $RKT 3.71% $OCN +3.58%, $LNKD +2.93%, $ROST 2.85%, $GMCR 2.18%, $TRIP +2.09%, $HBI 1.91%

new holdings charts:

mdso_daily_20130613 rkt_daily_20130613 ocn_daily_20130613 lnkd_daily_20130613 rost_daily_20130613 gmcr_daily_20130613 trip_daily_20136013 hbi_daily_20130613 rkt_daily_20130613

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stubbystock holdings as of EOD20130611 $AE $CBOE $CBRL $CELG $CME $COO $FNGN $IEP $MGA $MMLP $NKE $V

finviz daily charts.

these are the only holdings in my portfolio. just beware. i’m breaking my rules on with FNGN. float short is 15.86%. normally i stick to < 5%.

more details forthcoming.

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ugly market conditions $SPX $DJIA $COMPQ $STUDY

today i unloaded a number positions as it’s possible the market is heading toward a correction (down 10% or more from recent high is technically what a correction amounts to). if i had done nothing, the portfolio only dropped by 0.78% while

  • $SPX dropped 1.43%
  • $DJIA dropped by 1.36%
  • $COMPQ dropped by 1.01%
  • MORNINGSTAR LARGE VALUE $MLVL dropped 1.57%
  • MORNINGSTAR LARGE CORE $MLCR dropped by 1.52%
  • MORNINGSTAR LARGE GROWTH $MLGR down by 1.27%
  • MORNINGSTAR MID VALUE $MMVL down by 1.19%
  • MORNINGSTAR MID CORE $MMCR down by 1.22%
  • MORNINGSTAR MID GROWTH $MMGR down by 1.22%
  • MORNINGSTAR SMALL VALUE $MSVL down by 0.72%
  • MORNINGSTAR SMALL CORE $MSCR down by 0.8%
  • MORNINGSTAR SMALL GROWTH $MSGR down by 1.09%
  • see market barometer @ http://www.morningstar.com/

20130531_market_barameter

this weekend i’ll provide a little detailed analysis and update my portfolio holdings.

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stubbystock portfolio review [EOD20130530] $MDSO $CPA $FLT $GILD $CREE top list by IBD rank

symbols in alphabetical order: BBSI, BOFI, COG, COST, CPA, CREE, CSGP, DPZ, FLT, GILD, MDSO, MPC, SHOS, TYL ,UHS, UNF, VAL, WAB, WDC, WDR

finviz charts: in alphabetical order

stubbyrank criteria using IBD SmartSelect data:

  1. IBD composite rating: 80 or up
  2. IBD rs rating: 80 or up
  3. IBD eps rating: 70 or up
  4. equities are sorted in excel by 1, 2, 3 from above in that order. shifts ranking toward momentum rather than fundamental selection.
  5. typically i like to hold stocks with <5% float short. BOFI CREE DPZ are <10%.

stubbyallocation rules for constructing a diversified portfolio: (brief summary)

  1. i pick a benchmark that fits my thesis for at least a quarter going forward. then i use stubbyselect screens to look for additions to balance the portfolio as close as reasonably possible to the benchmark. currently, i am allocated to small/mid cap growth. the allocation is a close mix between ishares russell 2000 growth index etf IWO & ishares midcap growth index etf IWP.
  2. in addition to stubbyselect screening, i target long setups whose prices are reasonably close to each other and buy positions of shares in fractions based on a target total capital outlay. if i target $20K – $24K, positions may start in 1/4 or 1/8 positions. when i buy a long position, the cost of buying and selling the position ought not be more than 1/4 to 1/2% of that positions cost. i can achieve this using Interactive Brokers as my stock broker.
  3. to start with i equally share weight all purchases. years of backtesting have demonstrated my portfolios generally outperforms the benchmark by a handy margin over the course of several ups & downs over a year period of time. as the market moves, i’ll add or subtract positions based on technical buy or sell indicators. sometimes this results in being out of balance with my benchmark for some short periods of time.
  4. positions will be sold when they approach 1-3% loss when market technicals are very shaky. during strong uptrend markets i might let losses approach 5-8% if the stock is a leader and i feel there’s a good change of technicals turning in favor of the stock. positions with gains in the 15-30% range will be reduced or sold entirely.
  5. i take great advantage of worden tc2000 (the same people who produce freestockcharts.com) as my TA app and i set alarms based on price, volume and a whole host of technical indicators like cross ups or cross down in MACD, RSI, STOCHASTICS, CCI etc. worden does not integrate with my broker but i can manually setup automatic stop/loss trades based on my TA in tc2000 if i wish. i’m not a day trader which allows me more flexibility. for example, every now and then you may hear about mini or micro stock market crashes. prices suddenly drop 10% or more and then recover in 5 – 10 mins. an automatic stop/loss could lose a trader lots of money. this is a good segway to my next rule.
  6. i always keep large amounts of cash handy. i occasionally buy bond etfs and only under certain circumstances will i purchase inverse, levered inverse etfs or volatility tracking etfs. however i have lots of experience with inverse levered etfs and understand their weaknesses and advantages. prior to the 2008-2009 market collapse i developed a delta neutral arbitrage algorithm based on long/short etfs for a particular index which resulted in producing an oscillator to measure bullish or bearish market trends. i found the algo to be no more reliable than conventional oscillators as market conditions substantially improved. i do not trade options.
  7. i will bend these rules only when i think there is a high probability of obtaining exceptional short-term gains or to maneuver away from outsized losses.

in another post i’ll talk about my info gathering routines to look for catalysts for stock i hold or am watching, news to stay on top of market sentiment and i follow the domestic & global bond market like a hawk, currency indexes, precious metals futures and commodities sometimes. these can be proxy indicators for future supply and demand effecting the economy and the consumer in particular. another topic i will is how i use analytics in the morningstar.com personal portfolio manager and sites i rely on during earnings season.

current asset allocation: provided by morningstar.com personal portfolio manager.

stubbystocks_20130530b

worden charts of top 5:

mdso_daily_20130530

cpa_daily_20130530

flt_daily_20130530

gild_daily_20130530

cree_daily_20130530

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the last remaining stubbystocks [EOD20130522] $ACT $DPZ $GILD $ICON $PAA $SAIA $TBT $TYL $UHS $UNF $VAL $WAB

charts & quotes: 

No.1 rank chart and commentary:

paa_daily_20130522_tc2000

  • highest ranked: PAA
  • today i unloaded a lot of holdings, some for profit and some for loss. DPZ, ICON may wind up going because their float short percentages are higher than i like respectively: 6.19%, 23.25%.
  • ACT: hourly chart – exhibiting standing bear with claws up high. my way of saying bear flag. conceivably could drop to 120.
  • DPZ: daily chart – looking decent. could make a run for it’s 50DMA now @ 52.98.
  • GILD: daily chart – looking decent. could make a run for it’s 50DMA now @ 50.53.
  • ICON: daily chart – exhibiting standing bear with claws up high. could make a run for it’s 50DMA now @ 26.82.
  • PAA: daily chart – behaving pretty well. fairly tight MACD range. could make a run for it’s 200HRMA now @ 57.56.
  • SAIA: daily chart – a little bear claw looking. conceivably could drop to 40.
  • TYL: daily chart – a little bear claw looking. conceivably could drop to 63.
  • UHS: daily chart – near decent looking support level between current price and 65.
  • UNF: daily chart – near decent looking support level between current price and 94.10.
  • VAL: daily chart – a little bear claw looking. conceivably could drop to 68.
  • WAB: daily chart – actually looks in a bull flag formation. solid support starts kicking in @ 107.5.

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