Posts Tagged TYL

stubbystock portfolio review [EOD20130530] $MDSO $CPA $FLT $GILD $CREE top list by IBD rank

symbols in alphabetical order: BBSI, BOFI, COG, COST, CPA, CREE, CSGP, DPZ, FLT, GILD, MDSO, MPC, SHOS, TYL ,UHS, UNF, VAL, WAB, WDC, WDR

finviz charts: in alphabetical order

stubbyrank criteria using IBD SmartSelect data:

  1. IBD composite rating: 80 or up
  2. IBD rs rating: 80 or up
  3. IBD eps rating: 70 or up
  4. equities are sorted in excel by 1, 2, 3 from above in that order. shifts ranking toward momentum rather than fundamental selection.
  5. typically i like to hold stocks with <5% float short. BOFI CREE DPZ are <10%.

stubbyallocation rules for constructing a diversified portfolio: (brief summary)

  1. i pick a benchmark that fits my thesis for at least a quarter going forward. then i use stubbyselect screens to look for additions to balance the portfolio as close as reasonably possible to the benchmark. currently, i am allocated to small/mid cap growth. the allocation is a close mix between ishares russell 2000 growth index etf IWO & ishares midcap growth index etf IWP.
  2. in addition to stubbyselect screening, i target long setups whose prices are reasonably close to each other and buy positions of shares in fractions based on a target total capital outlay. if i target $20K – $24K, positions may start in 1/4 or 1/8 positions. when i buy a long position, the cost of buying and selling the position ought not be more than 1/4 to 1/2% of that positions cost. i can achieve this using Interactive Brokers as my stock broker.
  3. to start with i equally share weight all purchases. years of backtesting have demonstrated my portfolios generally outperforms the benchmark by a handy margin over the course of several ups & downs over a year period of time. as the market moves, i’ll add or subtract positions based on technical buy or sell indicators. sometimes this results in being out of balance with my benchmark for some short periods of time.
  4. positions will be sold when they approach 1-3% loss when market technicals are very shaky. during strong uptrend markets i might let losses approach 5-8% if the stock is a leader and i feel there’s a good change of technicals turning in favor of the stock. positions with gains in the 15-30% range will be reduced or sold entirely.
  5. i take great advantage of worden tc2000 (the same people who produce freestockcharts.com) as my TA app and i set alarms based on price, volume and a whole host of technical indicators like cross ups or cross down in MACD, RSI, STOCHASTICS, CCI etc. worden does not integrate with my broker but i can manually setup automatic stop/loss trades based on my TA in tc2000 if i wish. i’m not a day trader which allows me more flexibility. for example, every now and then you may hear about mini or micro stock market crashes. prices suddenly drop 10% or more and then recover in 5 – 10 mins. an automatic stop/loss could lose a trader lots of money. this is a good segway to my next rule.
  6. i always keep large amounts of cash handy. i occasionally buy bond etfs and only under certain circumstances will i purchase inverse, levered inverse etfs or volatility tracking etfs. however i have lots of experience with inverse levered etfs and understand their weaknesses and advantages. prior to the 2008-2009 market collapse i developed a delta neutral arbitrage algorithm based on long/short etfs for a particular index which resulted in producing an oscillator to measure bullish or bearish market trends. i found the algo to be no more reliable than conventional oscillators as market conditions substantially improved. i do not trade options.
  7. i will bend these rules only when i think there is a high probability of obtaining exceptional short-term gains or to maneuver away from outsized losses.

in another post i’ll talk about my info gathering routines to look for catalysts for stock i hold or am watching, news to stay on top of market sentiment and i follow the domestic & global bond market like a hawk, currency indexes, precious metals futures and commodities sometimes. these can be proxy indicators for future supply and demand effecting the economy and the consumer in particular. another topic i will is how i use analytics in the morningstar.com personal portfolio manager and sites i rely on during earnings season.

current asset allocation: provided by morningstar.com personal portfolio manager.

stubbystocks_20130530b

worden charts of top 5:

mdso_daily_20130530

cpa_daily_20130530

flt_daily_20130530

gild_daily_20130530

cree_daily_20130530

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the last remaining stubbystocks [EOD20130522] $ACT $DPZ $GILD $ICON $PAA $SAIA $TBT $TYL $UHS $UNF $VAL $WAB

charts & quotes: 

No.1 rank chart and commentary:

paa_daily_20130522_tc2000

  • highest ranked: PAA
  • today i unloaded a lot of holdings, some for profit and some for loss. DPZ, ICON may wind up going because their float short percentages are higher than i like respectively: 6.19%, 23.25%.
  • ACT: hourly chart – exhibiting standing bear with claws up high. my way of saying bear flag. conceivably could drop to 120.
  • DPZ: daily chart – looking decent. could make a run for it’s 50DMA now @ 52.98.
  • GILD: daily chart – looking decent. could make a run for it’s 50DMA now @ 50.53.
  • ICON: daily chart – exhibiting standing bear with claws up high. could make a run for it’s 50DMA now @ 26.82.
  • PAA: daily chart – behaving pretty well. fairly tight MACD range. could make a run for it’s 200HRMA now @ 57.56.
  • SAIA: daily chart – a little bear claw looking. conceivably could drop to 40.
  • TYL: daily chart – a little bear claw looking. conceivably could drop to 63.
  • UHS: daily chart – near decent looking support level between current price and 65.
  • UNF: daily chart – near decent looking support level between current price and 94.10.
  • VAL: daily chart – a little bear claw looking. conceivably could drop to 68.
  • WAB: daily chart – actually looks in a bull flag formation. solid support starts kicking in @ 107.5.

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stubbystock technical alert: morning new highs list $KUB $CVI $SAIA $CBS $VRTS $TRIP $C $TM and more

FINVIZ Stock Screener – Custom KUB,CVI,SAIA,CBS,VRTS,TRIP,C,TM,BDC,JPM,WDR,AXP,FEIC,TARO,PNC,MDSO,TYL perfytd

$KUB – daily performance leader of the pack
kub_daily_20130617_finviz

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16 stubbystock new 52wk HIGHS [EOD20130516]: $CAB $TRIP $VRTS $GMCR $OCN $WDR $ARMH & more including ATHs

notes:

ranking by IBD SmartSelect rating, EPS rating, RSI rating in that order. (listing in csv format)

Rank No.,Symbol,Company Name,Composite Rating ,EPS Rating,RS Rating,SMR Rating,Acc/Dis Rating,Group Rel Str Rating,ATH
1,GMCR,Green Mtn Coffee Roastrs,99,99,99,A,A+,A+,NO
2,TRIP,TripAdvisor Inc,99,97,93,A,B+,B-,YES
3,VRTS,Virtus Investment Ptnrs,99,80,99,A,A,A,YES
4,CAB,Cabelas Inc,99,96,95,B,B,A,YES
5,OCN,Ocwen Financial Corp,98,98,96,A,A+,C-,YES
6,ARMH,A R M Holdings Plc Ads,97,96,94,A,C,B,YES
7,WDR,Waddell & Reed Finl Cl A,97,89,89,A,C+,A,YES
8,BDC,Belden Inc,96,83,89,B,B+,B-,NO
9,ULTI,Ultimate Software Group,96,97,83,A,B,B,YES
10,TYL,Tyler Technologies Inc,96,90,93,A,A,C-,YES
11,N,Netsuite Inc,95,74,96,B,A-,B,YES
12,JJSF,J & J Snack Foods Corp,88,95,84,B,A-,C+,YES
13,FEIC,F E I Co,84,87,83,B,B+,D+,YES
14,JPM,J P Morgan Chase & Co,80,95,78,C,C,C,NO
15,PNC,P N C Financial Svcs Grp,74,81,61,B,B+,C+, NO
16,ASML,A S M L Holding N.V. NY,72,51,82,B,B+,C+,YES

$GMCR – top stubbystock chart & commentary

  • recent price behavior looking like a bear flag. i sold 3/4 position today in case the market rolls over in the next few days. but chart pattern very similar to  dec-2012. 10DMA price action could trade flat for a few weeks. will be looking at STOC, MACD & other indicators for adding back in. i like this name long-term.

gmcr_daily_20130516_tc2000

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2 notable 52wk HIGHS [EOD20130516] $VRTS $TYL both ATHs

screen results:

rank results: (csv format)

Rank no.,Symbol,Company Name,Composite Rating,EPS Rating,RS Rating,SMR Rating,Acc/Dis Rating,Group Rel Str Rating,ATH
1,VRTS,Virtus Investment Ptnrs,99,80,99,A,A,A,Y
2,TYL,Tyler Technologies Inc,96,90,93,A,A,C-,Y

charts:

vrts_daily_20130516_finviztyl_daily_20130516_finviz

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new category: stubby’s ALL TIME HIGH listing: long $AXP $CBRL $CBS $CCI $DDD $DPZ $MDSO $NSM $OCN $TRIP $UHS $ULTI $URI $WDR

stubby’s ATH list [EOD20130514] http://stks.co/qCp8 long $AXP $CBRL $CBS $CCI $DDD $DPZ $MDSO $NSM $OCN $TRIP $UHS $ULTI $URI $WDR Bullish

data source: barchart.com

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14 notable 52wk HIGHS [EOD20130514] $AMG $AOS $BDX $BEN $BIIB $C $ESGR $IFF $LVS $NATH $SHW $TYL $VAL $WLP

results: (csv format)

  • finviz.com chart list is by alphabetical order. stubby’s ranking is below:
  • my screening criteria is based on technical & fundamental parameters i find at finviz.com & IBD investors.com.

Rank no.,Symbol,Company Name,Composite Rating,EPS Rating,RS Rating,SMR Rating,Acc/Dis Rating,Group Rel Str Rating,
1,AMG,Affiliated Managers Grp,99,90,85,A,A-,A,
2,LVS,Las Vegas Sands Corp,99,74,86,A,B,A+,
3,BIIB,Biogen Idec Inc,98,90,94,A,A,A+,
4,BEN,Franklin Resources Inc,97,83,84,A,B+,A,
5,TYL,Tyler Technologies Inc,96,90,92,A,A-,C+,
6,NATH,Nathans Famous Inc,95,85,96,A,A-,A+,
7,AOS,Smith A O Corp,95,91,89,B,A-,B-,
8,IFF,Intl Flavors & Fragrance,93,87,80,B,A+,B,
9,ESGR,Enstar Group Ltd,90,70,81,A,B+,B,
10,SHW,Sherwin-Williams Co,88,87,86,B,B+,B-,
11,VAL,Valspar Corp,88,81,83,B,A,B-,
12,WLP,Wellpoint Inc,88,82,81,C,A,B,
13,C,Citigroup Inc,84,96,91,D,B-,C,
14,BDX,Becton Dickinson & Co,82,78,81,A,A,C-,

brief commentary: the majority of these names are in breakout mode. those that still have some resistance above are likely to take them out sooner than later. i current hold C. i recently sold out of AMG, BEN, BIIB, IFF. it’s been several weeks since i’ve held SHW, VAL, WLP. i’ve no no position in LVS, TYL, NATH, AOS, ESGR. it’s been so long since i’ve held BDX, it may as well be i haven’t held. i’ll be watching SHW & VAL as i am currently light basic materials. will wait though for pullback for better entry.

amg_daily_finviz_small_20130514aos_daily_finviz_small_20130514bdx_daily_finviz_small_20130514ben_daily_finviz_small_20130514biib_daily_finviz_small_20130514c_daily_finviz_small_20130514iff_daily_finviz_small_20130514lvs_daily_finviz_small_20130514nath_daily_finviz_small_20130514shw_daily_finviz_small_20130514val_daily_finviz_small_20130514wlp_daily_finviz_small_20130514

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